Results

Every pick we make is logged before the game and graded after it. Here is a good week, with the whole season beside it, so you can see both.

As of Oct 23, 2026This page is a snapshot of our logs. It is updated by hand, never live.

A good week, with the season beside it

The week

NHL top 5 each day

16-6+12.0 units

Oct 17 to Oct 23, 2026

Too early to tell (22 of 300 graded).

The same picks, season to date

NHL top 5 each day

23-19+3.0 units

Sep 29 to Oct 23, 2026

Too early to tell (42 of 300 graded).

Informational only: past results, not a promise of future ones, and not betting advice. Each day's top 5 NHL picks, ranked the way Top picks ranks them, over seven days of games. Every pick is listed, hits and misses, graded at the price logged before the start: one unit on each, flat. The same rule, every NHL game this season to date.

Every pick that week

  1. Nate Danielson under 0.5 assists

    2026-10-17 · SJS @ DET · -345 (BetMGM)

    +0.29Hit
  2. Jack Eichel under 3.5 shots on goal

    2026-10-17 · PIT @ VGK · -154 (DraftKings)

    +0.65Hit
  3. Nate Danielson under 0.5 points

    2026-10-17 · SJS @ DET · -227 (BetMGM)

    +0.44Hit
  4. Jack Roslovic under 0.5 power play points

    2026-10-17 · NYI @ TOR · -769 (BetMGM)

    +0.13Hit
  5. Isaac Howard under 1.5 shots on goal

    2026-10-17 · EDM @ UTA · -200 (BetMGM)

    +0.50Hit
  6. Zayne Parekh over 0.5 assists

    2026-10-18 · CAR @ CGY · +270 (DraftKings)

    +2.70Hit
  7. Damon Severson over 0.5 points

    2026-10-18 · CBJ @ MIN · +220 (BetOnline.ag)

    -1.00Missed
  8. MIN -1.5

    2026-10-18 · CBJ @ MIN · +137 (BetOnline.ag)

    -1.00Missed
  9. Under 6

    2026-10-18 · CAR @ CGY · +105 (BetOnline.ag)

    +1.05Hit
  10. CGY +1.5

    2026-10-18 · CAR @ CGY · -128 (Bovada)

    +0.78Hit
  11. Evan Bouchard under 2.5 shots on goal

    2026-10-20 · MIN @ EDM · +130 (Bovada)

    -1.00Missed
  12. Sebastian Aho under 0.5 points

    2026-10-20 · CAR @ VAN · +240 (BetMGM)

    +2.40Hit
  13. VGK ML

    2026-10-20 · TBL @ VGK · -108 (BetOnline.ag)

    -1.00Missed
  14. Under 6.5

    2026-10-20 · DET @ SEA · -108 (BetOnline.ag)

    -1.00Missed
  15. VGK -1.5

    2026-10-20 · TBL @ VGK · +228 (BetUS)

    -1.00Missed
  16. Over 5.5

    2026-10-21 · FLA @ OTT · -108 (BetOnline.ag)

    +0.93Hit
  17. OTT -1.5

    2026-10-21 · FLA @ OTT · +236 (BetUS)

    +2.36Hit
  18. William Karlsson under 1.5 shots on goal

    2026-10-22 · VGK @ STL · +130 (FanDuel)

    +1.30Hit
  19. Under 6.5

    2026-10-22 · ANA @ NJD · +110 (BetMGM)

    +1.10Hit
  20. Mackie Samoskevich over 0.5 points

    2026-10-22 · UTA @ SEA · +175 (DraftKings)

    +1.75Hit
  21. SEA +1.5

    2026-10-22 · UTA @ SEA · -154 (BetOnline.ag)

    +0.65Hit
  22. PIT ML

    2026-10-22 · FLA @ PIT · -104 (LowVig.ag)

    +0.96Hit

Two real picks, through the tools

Chosen to show the tools, not as a record: the most recent moneyline pick and the most recent player prop pick that were in a day's top 5, were sent as a top-pick alert before the start, were quoted by at least three books, and hit. Misses happen just as often; the week and season lines above count them all.

A moneyline pick · NHL · Thu Oct 22, 6:00 PM CT

PIT ML at -104 (LowVig.ag)

FLA @ PIT

TrialstrongHit

How the tools confirm a pick

  1. 1

    Top picks and alerts

    PIT ML was number 5 of NHL's top picks for 2026-10-22. A top-pick alert went out 30 minutes before the start: PIT ML at -104 (LowVig.ag), rated strong, labelled trial. Trial means picks like this have not yet beaten the closing market over enough graded picks.

  2. 2

    Fair price and Slate prices

    The market's fair price for PIT ML, with the books' margin taken out, was +102 when the pick was logged. Slate prices shows the market's fair price beside ours for every game, so you can see where we differ from the market and by how much.

  3. 3

    Price shop: the best number

    11 books quoted this line when it was logged, from -110 (BetUS) to -104 (LowVig.ag). On a hit, one unit at -104 returns 0.96 units; at -110 it returns 0.91. Same pick, a better number.

  4. 4

    Bet-to: the worst price still worth it

    Bet-to -117: by our numbers, the worst price still worth taking. 11 of the 11 quotes were at or better than it; at a worse price the pick is a pass.

  5. 5

    Build a report

    Build a report puts a card like this one beside any other games and players you choose, across sports, in one report you can print, download or send to the analysis chat.

  6. 6

    The analysis chatMembers

    Ask about the game in plain words, for example: "What do the books say about FLA @ PIT, and how has the line moved today?" It answers from the prices and records we store, and you can check every number. (The question is an example, not from our log.)

  7. 7

    Paper plays

    Logged as a paper play before the start, at -104, it is graded like a bet: hit, +0.96 units on one unit, with its closing line value. Your own plays become your own backtest, going forward. The market's fair price for PIT ML was +102 when the pick was logged and +102 at the close: about the same.

  8. 8

    How we test

    One result says little. NHL moneyline picks, season to date: 18 picks, 9-9, +0.5 units. Too early to tell (18 of 300 graded).

What the books quoted

  • LowVig.ag-104
  • BetMGM-105
  • BetOnline.ag-105
  • FanDuel-105
  • MyBookie.ag-105
  • BetRivers-108
  • Bovada-108
  • DraftKings-108
  • Caesars (William Hill)-108
  • BetUS-110
  • Fanatics-110

What happened

Final: FLA 0, PIT 4.

A player prop pick · NBA · Tue Oct 20, 8:30 PM CT

Stephon Castle under 6.5 assists at -114 (BetRivers)

OKC @ SAS

TrialstrongHit

How the tools confirm a pick

  1. 1

    Top picks and alerts

    Stephon Castle under 6.5 assists was number 2 of NBA's top picks for 2026-10-20. A top-pick alert went out 10 minutes before the start: Stephon Castle under 6.5 assists at -114 (BetRivers), rated strong, labelled trial. Trial means picks like this have not yet beaten the closing market over enough graded picks.

  2. 2

    Fair price and Slate prices

    The market's fair price for Stephon Castle under 6.5 assists, with the books' margin taken out, was -104 when the pick was logged. Slate prices shows the market's fair price beside ours for every game, so you can see where we differ from the market and by how much.

  3. 3

    Price shop: the best number

    7 books quoted this line when it was logged, from -125 (BetMGM) to -114 (BetRivers). On a hit, one unit at -114 returns 0.88 units; at -125 it returns 0.80. Same pick, a better number.

  4. 4

    Bet-to: the worst price still worth it

    Bet-to -133: by our numbers, the worst price still worth taking. 7 of the 7 quotes were at or better than it; at a worse price the pick is a pass.

  5. 5

    Build a report

    Build a report puts a card like this one beside any other games and players you choose, across sports, in one report you can print, download or send to the analysis chat.

  6. 6

    The analysis chatMembers

    Ask about the game in plain words, for example: "What do the books say about OKC @ SAS, and how has the line moved today?" It answers from the prices and records we store, and you can check every number. (The question is an example, not from our log.)

  7. 7

    Paper plays

    Logged as a paper play before the start, at -114, it is graded like a bet: hit, +0.88 units on one unit, with its closing line value. Your own plays become your own backtest, going forward. The market's fair price for Stephon Castle under 6.5 assists was -104 when the pick was logged and -104 at the close: about the same.

  8. 8

    How we test

    One result says little. NBA player prop picks, season to date: 1335 picks, 280-443, -77.3 units. Behind the market.

What the books quoted

  • BetRivers-114
  • DraftKings-114
  • BetOnline.ag-115
  • FanDuel-122
  • Caesars (William Hill)-123
  • BetMGM-125
  • Bovada-125

What happened

Final: OKC 116, SAS 104. Stephon Castle's assists: 1.

Edges this week

Where the price shop found the best prices, and how our top picks and alerts are doing. Trends and results only, nothing about how our models work. Oct 17 to Oct 23, 2026.

Price shop by sport

Market-only, not a model pick: a price at least 2 cents per dollar staked better than the other books' fair price. The price shop's rows shown in the same seven days: market-only (books' prices against each other, with no model of ours), graded after the game. Counted by sport, market and book.

  • NBA: 201 shown, 43-64 graded, −16.3 units. Too early to tell (107 of 300 graded).
  • NHL: 53 shown, 21-28 graded, +1.5 units. Too early to tell (49 of 300 graded).
  • NFL: 3 shown, 3-0 graded, +3.1 units. Too early to tell (3 of 300 graded).

Markets with the most rows

  1. NBA rebounds55
  2. NBA threes47
  3. NBA assists40
  4. NHL points39
  5. NBA rebounds + assists25

Books with the best price most often

  1. FanDuel97
  2. BetMGM90
  3. BetRivers44
  4. DraftKings24
  5. Caesars1

Top picks, same week

  • NBA top 5 each day: 5-10, −4.5 units, 5 pending
  • NHL top 5 each day: 16-6, +12.0 units
  • NFL top 5 each day: 5-5, −0.4 units

Alerts since the record began

  • Top-pick alerts: 25-12, +18.2 units. Too early to tell (37 of 300 graded).
  • Price-shop alerts (market-only, not a model pick): 67-92, −11.7 units. Too early to tell (159 of 300 graded).

Quick stats

models in service
12
sports
3
picks graded this season
1,790
alerts graded
196
price-shop rows graded
159

Every pick is still labelled trial: no kind of pick has yet passed our test against the closing market.

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